Based on 21,789 backtested games, spread picks are now filtered by edge size. Only games with 1.5+ point edge are recommended — turning a break-even model into a profitable one.
56.5%
2-3pt Edge
61.4%
3-5pt Edge
88.4%
5+ pt Edge
Totals Win Rate
57.5%
16,219 games backtested
Totals ROI
+10.6%
All picks, standard juice
Spread ATS (Filtered)
61.4%
Edge 3+ pts, 1,925 games
Today's Games
8
Vetting cards generated
Model Features
68
Including 2 ghost variables
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Ghost Variable Sandbox
Toggle any of the 68 model features on or off to see how the prediction changes. You can also add your own custom "ghost variables" — these are extra factors you think matter that the model doesn't track yet. Your sandbox is completely private and doesn't affect the master model.
Add Your Own Ghost Variables
Think something matters that we don't track? Add it here. Choose a category and set the impact level — the system will calculate the point value for you.
How weights work:
Each ghost variable shifts the predicted spread. A weight of +1.0 means "this factor is worth about 1 point toward the team it helps."
Our built-in ghost variables (Altitude Shock, Look-Ahead Trap) typically range from 0.5 to 4.0 points.
Quick reference: Minor factor = 0.5-1.0 · Moderate = 1.0-2.0 · Major = 2.0-3.0 · Game-changer = 3.0-4.0
Totals model is production-ready. 57.5% hit rate across 16,219 games with +10.6% ROI is strong and consistent. Win rate scales cleanly with edge: 50.4% at tiny edges up to 81.8% at 7+ point edges. This is exactly the pattern you want — higher confidence = higher accuracy.
Spread model is now profitable with smart filtering. Raw ATS across all games was break-even, but our new edge-based filter changes the picture completely. At 2-3 point edges: 56.5% ATS. At 3-5 point edges: 61.4% ATS. The model's MAE is 2x better than the market — the key was only recommending bets when the edge is meaningful (1.5+ points).
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